It was 60 days prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while his coach admonished him over missing a through-ball. Back then, as Villa failed to win in six, the question was if his displays were a symptom or the reason of the team's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
On Sunday, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. After the England international curled home his second to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery tore off his winter coat, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win , having failed to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Are They Serious Challengers?
It remains an exceptionally difficult query to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of this institution, suggests not. Moreover, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team registered an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a team that have put together a ten-match winning streak, Villa look strangely fragile – yet at the moment the margins are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with rivals and wait for Rogers to rescue them with two precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal came from a brilliant finish, curled precisely inside the post from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the most significant challenge they have to face as the season progresses. The forward, surely, cannot maintain drilling the football into the top corner week in, week out.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality whereby, rather than luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players could still rediscover their best form.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The winger could transform into the performer he was during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, strengthening a periodically leaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on a single individual.
Savoring the Moment
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly two months ago, no one envisioned the midfielder now would be spearheading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial England player.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As the match-winner faced the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods do not happen often and should be relished.
